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Stocks Climb, Treasuries Drop as Georgia Votes

Stocks rose and bonds dropped amid important elections in Georgia that should decide which party controls the U.S. Senate for the following two years, setting the scope of President elect Joe Biden’s agenda.

In a session marked by thin trading volume, the S&P 500 rebounded after suffering its worst start to a season since 2016. Energy shares surged as oil traded near fifty dolars a barrel, while the Russell 2000 Index of smaller companies jumped 1.7 %. With marketplaces factoring in an even greater chance of a Democratic sweep of Congress, several analysts see the possibility for heightened volatility. In anticipation to the outcome of the Georgia vote, that will probably be identified on Wednesday, Treasury yields climbed — with an important curve measure reaching its steepest level in four years. The dollar slipped to the lowest since February 2018.

Whether or not Wall Street is becoming much more at ease with the notion of Democrats taking control of both chambers of Congress, the scenario seems to indicate the chance of a considerably more generous stimulus program. That could potentially lead to upward pressure on rates and inflation along with higher taxes to pay for fiscal aid. Conversely, should possibly Republican incumbent win re election, the party would have sufficient votes to block some Biden initiative.

We don’t view a Democrat Senate as a bearish game changer in the short-term because there’d still be a great deal of positives in that market, Tom Essaye, a former Merrill Lynch trader who developed The Sevens Report newsletter, wrote in a note to clients. We would look to buy on virtually any material dip, although we should brace for more volatility going forward if that’s the result at today’s election.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump failed once again to invalidate his election loss of Georgia and let the state’s Republican led legislature to declare him the winner — the latest courtroom defeat of his in a quixotic attempt to remain in office despite losing the Nov. 3 vote.

Another info growth that caught investors interest was the new York Stock Exchange’s surprise decision to spare 3 major Chinese telecommunications companies from being delisted. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called NYSE Group Inc. President Stacey Cunningham to voice the disapproval of his, based on two people accustomed to the matter. Several U.S. officials said the move marks a short-term reprieve, not really an indication that tensions between Beijing and Washington are easing.

Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia surprised the oil market with a major reduction in the output of its for March as well as February, carrying a greater burden of OPEC cuts while some other makers hold steady or make little increases.

What you should enjoy this week:

U.S. Congress meets counting electoral votes and declare the winner of the 2020 Presidential election Wednesday.
FOMC minutes through Wednesday.
U.S. unemployment report for December is due Friday.
These are several of the main movements in markets:

Stocks
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.7 % as of 4 p.m. New York time.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2 %.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.1 %.

Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index sank 0.5 %.
The euro gained 0.4 % to $1.2291.
The Japanese yen appreciated 0.4 % to 102.74 per dollar.

Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 4 basis points to 0.95 %.
Germany’s 10-year yield jumped three basis points to -0.58 %.
Britain’s 10 year yield climbed 4 basis points to 0.209 %.

Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude surged 4.9 % to $49.93 a barrel.
Gold rose 0.3 % to $1,948.17 an ounce.

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